16.07.2019

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This report highlights the role of diets, urbanization, emissions and trade in outlook for next decade. Thus, agricultural output growth is likely to keep food prices low over the coming decade, but many uncertainties remain.

This years edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook was published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in early July 2019. It provides a consensus assessment of the 10-year prospects for agricultural and fish commodity markets at national, regional and global levels and features a special chapter on Latin American and the Caribbean.

According to the report, global demand for agricultural products is projected to grow by 15 per cent over the coming decade, while agricultural productivity growth is expected to increase slightly faster, causing inflation-adjusted prices of the major agricultural commodities to remain at or below their current levels.

The outlook projects that yield improvements and higher production intensity, driven by technological innovation, will result in higher output even as global agricultural land use remains broadly constant. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, meanwhile, are expected to grow by some 0.5 per cent annually over the coming decade, below the 0.7 per cent rate of the past 10 years and below the projected output growth rate - indicating declining carbon intensity.

At the same time, new uncertainties are emerging on top of the usual risks facing agriculture.

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