Four Asian countries reported ASF outbreaks during the last months.
Photo: ©FAO/Sue Price

29.05.2019

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More than a hundred Chinese provinces reported African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks during the last months. The spread of ASF over East Asia is likely to have a noticeable impact on global meat and feed markets.

Since China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) confirmed its first African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in August 2018, 133 ASF outbreaks were detected in 32 provinces by mid-May 2019, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 

More than one million pigs have been culled in China in an effort to halt further spread, MARA reported on 23 April 2019. China is a major producer of pork and accounts for an estimated 500 million pigs, approximately half the global swine population.

Major impact on the global markets

Experts from Rabobank expect Chinese pork production losses in 2019 of 25 to 35 per cent in response to ASF. They say that the 30 per cent loss in Chinese pork production is nearly 30 per cent larger than the annual US pork production and equivalent to Europe’s annual pork supply. 

They assume that the shift in global trade patterns to meet animal protein demand will be highly dynamic.

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