Sub-Saharan Africa fully self-sufficient in cereals by 2050 – it is possible

A new study by Dutch Wageningen University & Research (WUR) in collaboration with other universities and research institutes shows that sub-Saharan Africa can grow enough grains like maize, wheat and millet to feed its own population by 2050. The results were published in the academic journal PNAS last June.

Over the past half century, food production per hectare has increased dramatically in almost every region of the world. However, sub-Saharan Africa is an exception. Although total food production increased, this was mainly due to acreage expansion, says Martin van Ittersum, professor of Plant Production Systems at the Dutch Wageningen University & Research. "And there are limits to that", says van Ittersum. "Not only because at some point land will no longer be available, but also because using more land for agriculture comes at the expense of valuable wildlife and ecosystems and causes higher greenhouse gas emissions.

"At the same time, there is an increase in the demand for food. Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing the fastest population growth in the world. The population is expected to almost double between now and 2050. Furthermore, people’s diet changes as they start earning more and the number of kilocalories consumed per person increases. Together, this will lead to a doubling of demand by 2050."

Less reliance on other regions

Key to the research was the extent to which sub-Saharan Africa, which includes countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya, can be self-sufficient in the production of five grains – maize, wheat, millet, rice and sorghum – by 2050. These grains provide half of the region's calorie requirements.

According to van Ittersum, some countries are already completely self-sufficient for certain crops, but for the region as a whole, around ten per cent of the total consumption is still imported.

Complete self-sufficiency is possible

Currently, sub-Saharan Africa is 92 per cent self-sufficient in the production of the five grains. In the study, the researchers looked at what is needed in each country and, in particular, for the region in 2050 when demand has doubled. They studied the potential for yields based on soils, climatic conditions and climate change in the area, says van Ittersum. "For the data, we used climate models, soil maps and an extensive database with data on yield potential, nutrient requirements and water productivity of crops, among others", he explains. "Our calculations show that it is possible for sub-Saharan Africa to be self-sufficient in grains by 2050, without further acreage expansion and taking into account the expected effects of climate change."

A more positive outlook than previously thought

This is more positive than the outlook described in a 2016 study, which was based on the situation in 2010. "Back then, complete self-sufficiency in 2050 via yield increases alone did not really seem feasible," the scientist notes. "That the forecast is now more favourable can mainly be explained by adjusted expectations of population growth and the relative increase in acreage of maize, a high-yielding crop, particularly at the expense of millet. The latter also has negative consequences, such as loss of agrobiodiversity and resilience of the crop systems and diet impoverishment.

"Another important factor playing a role in the more favourable outlook is the substantial increase in agricultural area between 2010 and 2020. In itself, the rapid acreage expansion is a worrying development, but it does ensure that the current acreage now looks adequate to enable self-sufficiency in 2050."

Based on the grain acreage in 2020, the current yield increase of 20 kilogrammes per hectare per year is not enough to become self-sufficient by 2050. "This needs to almost triple," van Ittersum maintains. "That is a major trend change which requires radical changes in agricultural management. Examples include improving seed and sowing timing, proper fertilisation and responsible application of crop protection. That’s a huge challenge now. Farmers often lack the money to buy the right tools and the knowledge on how to use them. You need to know when to sow, how much fertiliser is needed and how to control weeds, diseases and pests – without damaging the environment or the soil. Moreover, you must be aware that what works varies for each region and type of crop. To achieve all this, countries need to provide infrastructure, sufficient and accessible credit, and invest in education and knowledge."

Importance of political stability and trade

But this is by no means always the case, the scientist continues. That is often due to political instability. "When there is war or conflict in a country, it is very difficult to implement agricultural programmes. Good relations between countries in the region are also important. If you can establish an infrastructure with a neighbouring country and have free trade, you can also exchange food. That means you don't have to be self-sufficient in every country and for every crop, but can focus more on crops that can best be produced within the country's conditions. You supplement the rest through mutual trading. So in theory, a lot is possible, but success ultimately depends on many factors," he concludes.

(WUR/wi)