A systems approach to detecting and preventing tipping points in Amazonia

The Amazon rainforest is more than just a global carbon sink and a biodiversity hotspot. It is home to 30 million people whose lives are inextricably linked to what the rainforest’s ecosystem produces. In the so-called MAP region, this balance is under unprecedented pressure. The MAP region is a transboundary area in the south-western Amazon encompassing the states of Madre de Dios (Peru), Acre (Brazil) and Pando (Bolivia).

Historically isolated, the region gained greater economic and commercial importance after the construction of the Interoceanic Highway in 2010. But this road construction has also intensified logging, commercial agriculture, cattle ranching, gold mining and illegal activities. These changes could push the region towards a "tipping point"; the social-ecological systems of rural households could lose their resilience and become less stable and sustainable.

The MAP Region – three countries, three realities

Thanks to its unique confluence of factors, the MAP region is considered a laboratory for studying how infrastructure development, diverse land-uses, nature conservation and institutional structures evolve across national borders and under conditions of climate change.

The MAP region, the Interoceanic highway and neighbouring protected areas.
Map: R. Capella

Researchers at the Institute for Environmental Sciences (iES)/RPTU (University of Kaiserslautern-Landau) and University of Bonn’s Center for Development Research (ZEF), both in Germany, show in a study that, despite sharing the same ecological conditions, the three MAP countries have evolved toward distinct social-ecological systems. In Pando (Bolivia), the system’s stability has traditionally relied on the Brazilian nut trade. However, the combination of volatile international prices and political instability has weakened local institutions and made the economy, which, being dependent on non-forest timber products, more fragile.

In Acre (Brazil), the economy is dominated by cattle ranching. Driven by steady market demand and a lack of effective control measures, the primary threat to its resilience consists of forest being conversed to pasture remains. Meanwhile, in Madre de Dios, in Peru, the economy has diversified significantly, with activities such as farming, ecotourism and mining on the rise. While this diversification has provided an economic buffer to a certain extent, the state struggles to control the rise of illegal mining and logging, which degrade the environment and the social fabric.

Understanding complex systems in real life

In real-life situations, things are connected in ways that are hard to understand, such as how a community, its environment and its economy all influence each other. That is why such contexts are called complex systems. The study of complex systems helps us to uncover these connections and explore ways to prevent harmful situations.

We see this clearly in the MAP region, where land uses, economic activities and institutional settings interact. Now, with added pressure from external forces like climate change, these systems risk evolving towards decline and even collapse, reaching, technically, a tipping point.

Crucially, such complex systems cannot be investigated in isolation. To understand them, we must involve the people who affect and are affected by the system in all its dimensions. This inclusive process is the basis of our research approach: participatory systems analysis.

The Participatory Systems Approach

Modelling complex social-ecological systems remains a challenging field and an unfinished task in academia. Our approach, which combines stakeholder analysis and participatory systems analysis, has produced results that are, first, locally legitimate and, second, plausible, and they aim to be applicable in the short term.

Screenshot components interaction in the Acre systems model. 

How to strengthen the systems’ resilience

Our participatory systems analysis suggests that all three sites show a strong tendency towards instability. This can be caused by the dominance of one component or by conflicts between several components, forcing systems in different directions. Therefore, strategies to prevent tipping points must be tailored to each site. However, two overarching measures appear appropriate for all three sites: promoting economic diversification (in line with forest care) and strengthening governance.

In the first case, Madre de Dios (Peru) shows considerable progress in diversifying its local economy, while efforts in Acre (Brazil) and (Pando) Bolivia remain timid. In the second case, all three sites face a difficult path; improved governance would begin with resolving the volatility of their institutional landscape, a consequence of chronic political struggles.

If successful, the following priorities should be established: in Madre de Dios, formalising the informal/illegal sectors, in Pando, stabilising the institutions that govern forest products, and in Acre, decoupling regional development from extensive cattle ranching.

Dr Daniel Callo-Concha is an associated researcher at the Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn; and Lecturer at the RPTU Koblenz-Landau, Germany.
Professor Oliver Frör leads the Environmental Economics group at the RPTU Koblenz-Landau, Germany.
Contact: d.callo-concha@uni-bonn.de

This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the awarded grants 01LC1824A to 01LC1824F.

Reference:

Callo-Concha, D. and O. Frör (2025): Resilience and tipping points in social-ecological systems of the southwestern Amazon: a participatory systems analysis. Ecology and Society 30(4):50. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-16624-300450