Global Risks Report 2026

Geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the top global risk for 2026, climbing eight positions in the two-year outlook, according to this year’s Global Risks Report, published by the World Economic Forum in January 2026. Further risks are interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation, and misinformation and disinformation. Half of those surveyed anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year.

The report leverages insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey, which draws on the views of over 1,300 global leaders and experts from academia, business, government, international organisations and civil society, as well as the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Global Future Councils Network and the Forum’s C-suite communities.

Environmental risks dominate the ten-year forecast

The report analyses risks across three timeframes: immediate (2026), short-to-medium term (the next two years) and long term (the next 10 years).

In the long term, environmental risks play the dominant role, with extreme weather events in first place, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse in second place and critical change to Earth systems in third place. These factors are likely to affect rural areas in particular. Three quarters of respondents expect turbulent or stormy prospects for the environment, which is the most negative figure of all categories.

Geoeconomic confrontation the biggest short-term risk

Although half of the ten biggest risks over a ten-year period are environmental risks, these risks play a minor role when considering the two-year period. Compared to the previous year's results, all environmental risks recorded a decline in severity ratings for the two-year period. There has been an absolute shift away from environmental concerns. Geoeconomic confrontation, misinformation and disinformation, and social polarisation play the biggest role here.

Eighteen per cent of respondents view geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, as well as being ranked 1st for severity over the next two years, up eight positions from last year.

“The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next,” says Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.

Ines Lechner, editor Rural 21

Visit the website of the Global Risks Report 2026