Bruce Campbell works for Clim-Eat with a focus on fostering action in food systems through knowledge generation and stakeholder engagement.
Fertiliser sovereignty in Africa now!
By Bruce Campbell
Yet another spike in inorganic fertiliser prices is expected as the war in the Persian Gulf hits oil prices and shipping routes. Oil and fertiliser prices are closely connected, and about a third of fertiliser trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The net result is higher food prices, severe impacts on foreign currency reserves of poorer countries, and lower yields if fertiliser use drops. And this is not the first hit on fertiliser prices, given the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply chains disrupted by COVID and the oil crises in 1973 and 1979.
Such trends have many negative impacts for the food systems of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Take Ethiopia, for example. With high fertiliser prices in 2023, fertiliser application rates were reduced by smallholder farmers, more so by those with the smallest farm sizes. This is problematic as fertiliser use increases yields substantially. With high fertiliser prices, fertilisers became unprofitable for half of the maize and teff producers and a third of the wheat producers. The gains in yields from agricultural development in Ethiopia are at risk of being slowed or even turned around, and disparities between smaller and larger farmers grow.
It’s time to rethink the SSA fertiliser value chains – bringing in both high tech solutions and agroecology. But let’s be clear – fertiliser use can hardly be reduced, so that is not a solution. Average fertiliser use in SSA by smallholder farmers is very low – below 20 kg per ha. Compare that to the European Union, with above 120 kg per ha. Fertilisation is especially important on the old Gondwana surfaces of Africa where the sandy soils are inherently nutrient-poor. And nutrient mining – removal of nutrients through crop production without sufficient and balanced nutrient inputs – is a widespread component of soil degradation in SSA.
Let’s embrace fertiliser sovereignty
One component of this is fertiliser production plants in Africa. They are coming, some of them even with the latest green technology. In Kenya, plans for what is perhaps the world’s first geothermal-based ammonia plant have been launched. It is projected to produce 300,000 tonnes of ammonia-based fertiliser per year and create 2,000 jobs. Another green ammonia plant in Kenya is running on solar energy. The inputs needed for green ammonia are simple: air, water and a source of renewable energy. Research and Innovation Strategist Philip Thornton shows that green ammonia production has high potential in several locations in SSA where these resources and demand are abundant.
But low-tech agroecological practices should also be on the cards. This includes attention to good old fashioned agricultural practices, such as intercropping, rotation with nitrogen-fixing legumes and incorporating organic residues in the soil. To illustrate the potential, the average yield improvement in Africa for the first maize crop after a legume rotation was nearly one ton/hectare (114 studies). Soybean-maize rotations will retain the maize yield with applications of 25 kg/ha nitrogen (N) less than in maize monocrops. Unfortunately, fertiliser subsidies, while helping to increase nutrient additions to depleted soils, have also been responsible for less attention to good practices, contributing to the growing trend towards monocropping. Rethinking subsidies is one key to solutions.
A range of new soil amendments are being developed, too, from low-tech to high-tech. In Malawi, an organo-mineral fertiliser is being trialled – Mbeya; a composted mixture of inorganic fertiliser, manure, bran and ash. It can be homemade from local materials, and while it only has 20 per cent of their inorganic fertiliser content, it is performing nearly as well as the 100 per cent inorganic fertiliser applications, but at a much lower cost. It is also impacting soil health positively.
At the high-tech end, there is the buzz around many different possibilities: nanofertilisers, microbial biostimulants that help plants absorb nutrients, biological compounds inhibiting nitrification, soil additives to sequester carbon, to name a few. As an example, we now have the “Initiative for Biofertilizer Innovation and Science” (IBIS), funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and the Bill Gates Foundation, which will attempt to catalyse the development and deployment of effective biofertilisers.
In 2024, the Nairobi Declaration called for a tripling of domestic fertiliser production, enhancing accessibility for smallholder farmers, and restoring 30 per cent of degraded land. Now is a good moment to make a huge push on the the Nairobi declaration.
Are we going to wait for yet another fertiliser price surge, or are we going to move rapidly to fertiliser sovereignty in SSA?
Bruce Campbell is a Senior Advisor at the Global Center on Adaptation and Chief Innovation Strategist at Clim-Eat. Previously, he was the Director of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). He works on adaptation to increased climatic variability and progressive climate change, and on low emissions development. His work has involved research for development in more than 20 countries. He was previously based in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Indonesia and Australia, and is now living in Denmark. Bruce has published over 180 journal articles and more than a dozen books, and his passion is getting knowledge into action.
Contact: bruce(at)clim-eat.org
References:
Assefa, T.W., Berhane, G., Abate, G.T. and Abay, K.A., 2025. Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy, 133, p.102785.
Bloomberg. Iran War Snarls Key Global Hub for Fertilizer Supplies
Campbell, B.M., Nyirongo, J., Botha, B., Duchoslav, J., Munthali, M.W., Nyondo, C., Sunga, I. and Wollenberg, E.K., 2023. From input subsidies to compensating farmers for soil health services. CompensACTION Policy Brief, Clim-Eat.Diab, S. and Karaki, M.B., 2023. Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?. Energy Economics, 127, p.107066.
Clim-Eat. Innovation Pulse: Green hydrogen-based ammonia
https://clim-eat.org/green-ammonia/
Falconnier, G.N., Cardinael, R., Corbeels, M., Baudron, F., Chivenge, P., Couëdel, A., Ripoche, A., Affholder, F., Naudin, K., Benaillon, E. and Rusinamhodzi, L., 2023. The input reduction principle of agroecology is wrong when it comes to mineral fertilizer use in sub-Saharan Africa. Outlook on Agriculture, 52(3), pp.311-326.
Shewangizaw, B., Agegnehu, G., Desta, G., Legesse, G., Desalegn, H. and Tigabie, A., 2025. Nitrogen Fertilizer Replacement in Legume Cereal Rotations. CGIAR Sustainable Farming Science Program Report.
Thornton, P., 2025. Locating decentralised green ammonia production facilities. Technical Brief, 1.
Vos, R., Glauber, J., Hebebrand, C. and Rice, B., 2025. Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability. Food Policy, 133, p.102790.
https://vespertool.com/knowledge-hub/fertilizers/types-of-data/historical-data/
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