Three-quarters of Earth’s land became drier in last three decades
More than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) warned in December 2024. Some 77.6 per cent of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period.
Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6 per cent of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).
In recent decades, some 7.6 per cent of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).
Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems and the people living there.
And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another three per cent of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.
In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa and southern Australia.
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9 per cent of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia) and central Africa.
For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25 per cent of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.
And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest that up to five billion people could be living in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.
Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges world-wide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move – a trend set to intensify in coming decades.
(UNCCD/ile)
Read more on the UNCCD website
Add a comment
Be the First to Comment