Global food insecurity likely to decline?

Global food insecurity is likely to decline over the next decade, according to the International Food Security Assessment 2018 to 2028 published by U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in June 2018.

According to the experts, the share of the food-insecure population is expected to fall from 21.1 per cent to 10.4 per cent – despite a population growth from 3.7 to 4.3 billion people. In absolute figures this means that the number of food-insecure people is projected to fall from 782 million in 2018 to 446 million in 2028.

The food gap – the amount of food required to allow all food-insecure people to reach the caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per day – is projected to decline from 36 million tons to 24 million tons.

The authors followed 76 low- and middle-income countries in four regions, and these countries were included in the assessment if they currently or previously received food aid. These 76 countries represent a population of 3.7 billion people and include almost all of the people in the lowest income countries and a smattering of middle-income countries. The four regions are: Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Decline of food insecurity varies across regions

Currently, 21 per cent of the total population of the 76 countries - 782 million people - are food insecure. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest share of food insecure people: 35.3 per cent of its population being food insecure in 2018. This number is projected to drop to 24 per cent in 2028.

The projected decline in the food-insecure population in Asia is 16.6 (2018) to 4.7 (2028) per cent, in Latin America and the Caribbean 19.5 (2018) to 9.5 (2028) per cent and in North Africa 4.9 (2018) to 2.3 (2028) per cent.

These projections are based on the assumption that per capita income is going to increase in almost all countries from 2018 to 2028. Economic growth is initially slower than in the early 2000s, state the experts, but then rises as economies affected by low oil and mineral prices begin to grow again.

International food prices are expected to remain low in real terms over the projection period. However, oil prices are projected to rise near the end of the projection period, and grain production is anticipated to increase due to increased global demand.

(USDA/ile)

More information at USDA Website