Geopolitical conflict-driven food fallout calls for agroecology solutions

By Lulseged Tamene, Jonathan Mockshell, Francisco Hidalgo, Ryan Nehring and Wei Zhang

As one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors, the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day and handles 27 per cent of global oil exports, 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas exports, and 20 to 30 per cent of internationally traded inorganic fertilisers. Its closure has immediately disrupted the flow of these essential commodities, triggering sharp price spikes in fuel and key agricultural inputs.

This situation demonstrates how geopolitical instability can rapidly disrupt essential agricultural functions under current input-dependent, industrial production systems that rely heavily on external energy and supply chains.  This crisis highlights, more clearly than ever, a critical reality: food systems tied to fossil fuels are inherently unsustainable, continually undermine food sovereignty and disproportionately affect farmers, particularly smallholders in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). World Food Programme estimates warn that, if the conflict continues, the soaring oil, shipping and food  costs will push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger, driving the global total beyond its record 319 million. This is deeply concerning for a global community already struggling to stay on track towards achieving the SDG targets and other commitments. Against this backdrop, reducing food systems’ reliance on fossil fuels and external inputs is essential to strengthen their resilience to future shocks.

The truth is that fossil fuels course through every stage of the food system – from fertilisers and pesticides to processing, preservation, transportation, packaging, food waste disposal and even food preparation. Moreover, entrenched economic and political structures lock in this fossil-fuel dependence through massive subsidies and price protections. The International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES‑Food) reports that global annual subsidies for fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based electricity have surged to over one trillion US dollars (USD) in recent years. 

Meanwhile, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Environment Programme are clear in that nearly 90 per cent of the 540 billion USD in 2021, agricultural support props up chemical-intensive commodity crop production. IPES‑Food also cautions that industry-promoted approaches to low carbon agriculture – such as “blue” ammonia fertilisers, synthetic biology and precision farming technologies– are expensive, energy-intensive, and risk perpetuating food systems’ reliance on fossil fuels while keeping farmers dependent on agrochemicals, industrial monocultures and corporate mandates.

However, things do not necessarily have to be this way, and this course can still be redirected. Food systems can shift to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels while still meeting the needs of a growing global population. In this context, agroecology, regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions offer a holistic approach to environmental, social and economic sustainability, supporting a transition from energy-sink systems to regenerative ones, radically enhancing food system’s resilience in the face of escalating geopolitical instability and environmental vulnerability.

Decoupling farms from fossil fuels

Food systems and fossil fuels are deeply intertwined, with the Global Alliance for the Future of Food estimating that food accounts for at least 15 per cent of total fossil fuel use– mostly through synthetic fertilisers⁴. On farms, fossil fuels are used in the form of synthetic fertilisers, to power machinery and vehicles, and generate electricity and heat for key processes like irrigation, grain drying, livestock housing and food storage.  

Agroecology, regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions offer proven farm-level strategies to reduce reliance on synthetic fertilisers, drawing on natural processes and local resources for sustainable soil fertility. Crucially, many of these practices draw directly from Indigenous knowledge systems, where local communities have long maintained soil health through time. Practical steps include organic fertilisation (often blended with minimal synthetic inputs), efficient microorganisms, nitrogen-fixing plants and soil health practices like crop rotation, cover cropping, intercropping, reduced tillage and crop-livestock integration.

Research consistently shows that agroecological approaches– such as farm diversification and tree‑integrated systems– outperform conventional systems in climate resilience, nutrient cycling, and soil health, often while boosting yields. Agroforestry also provides a source of wood fuel, making it a valuable alternative during fossil‑fuel shortages and price spikes.

Farmers who have taken these steps share powerful stories of success and transformation, while reaping clear benefits like boosted productivity, greater resilience, and stronger livelihoods. Examples can be found worldwide. Peruvian cocoa farmers are using bokashi and bio-oil amendments to restore soil organic matter, regenerate microbial activity and enhance nutrient cycling¹; in Vietnam, rice-fish coculture systems optimise nutrient cycling, curb pests, and diversify outputs– lowering costs while stabilising farmer incomes; Ethiopian farmers practising wheat-fava bean rotations are cutting fertiliser needs while improving soil structure and building long-term fertility.

India’s agroecology programme, “Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF)”, delivers biodiversity benefits while more than doubling farmers’ economic profits and maintaining comparable crop yields, than chemical-based farming.Moreover, building local, farmer-centric, decentralised input systems, promoted by agroecological approaches, has the potential to reduce smallholder farmers' dependence on corporate supply chains,advancing food sovereignty and a more equitable redistribution of political and economic power within food systems.

Beyond agroecological alternatives to synthetic fertilisers, other farm-level steps to curb fossil fuel dependence include integrating renewable energy sourcesfor on-site generation and operations – like solar panels, biogas digesters and wind turbines, solar water pumps, adopting fuel-efficient engines and draft animals, and embracing practices such as minimum tillage, precision irrigation, integrated pest management and low-input crop-livestock systems. Landscape-level management approaches, such as restoration of common lands, agroforestry, silvo-agro-pastoralism, and natural or semi-natural vegetation (as beneficial insect habitats and alternative food sources), offer essential complementarities by emphasising the sustainable management and use of natural resources and biodiversity. Nevertheless, scaling up these agroecological solutions demands broader political, institutional and economic support to address barriers like transition costs, knowledge gaps and missing infrastructure– such as dedicated input supply chains and technical assistance. Local capacity-building support must be coupled with disincentives for chemical-intensive systems, for instance, by redirecting harmful subsidies– currently backing synthetic fertilisers and pesticides– toward locally produced bio-inputs.

Actions beyond the farm horizon

The interlinkages between fossil fuels and food extend far beyond the farm, as do the alternatives offered by agroecology, regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions. A major portion– 42 per cent – of fossil fuel use in food systems is concentrated in the middle of the chain, where energy intensive processes transform, manufacture, package and distribute food to retailers and consumers. This segment relies heavily on refrigeration, processing equipment and vehicles that still run largely on fossil fuels, and its energy use is growing globally as demand for ultraprocessed foods and longer, more complex supply chains increases both processing and packaging, as well as “food miles”.

Agroecology, regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions offer multiple pathways to reduce fossil fuel dependence across the midstream segments of the food value chain by reshaping processing, packaging and distribution. Agroecologically inspired systems can repurpose organic residues through anaerobic digestion to generate biogas for on-site heat and power, building on practices already implemented in millions of small-scale domestic digesters. More fundamentally, shifting from global, industrial commodity chains toward territorial, agroecological food networks can relocalise production, processing and consumption– shortening supply chains and reducing energy-intensive operations. IPES-Food’s Food From Somewhere report highlights how local markets enable smallholders to market diverse, environmentally sound products while enhancing transparency, stability and resilience, particularly when supported by investments in regional infrastructure such as processing facilities, cold storage and wholesale markets. Shorter, localised supply chains reduce reliance on long-distance transport, lower packaging demand and promote reusable packaging systems, thereby decreasing fossil fuel consumption. These efforts can be reinforced by complementary practices that strengthen food sovereignty, such as home gardens and urban agriculture. Crucially, agroecology also aligns with reduced production of ultra-processed foods– among the most energy-intensive products – helping to curb fossil fuel use while potentially improving public health. These transformations are underpinned by civic food networks and food citizenship, which define new trading circuits in which producers and consumers actively reshape market dynamics around equity, sustainability and local embeddedness.

Changing diets is key to reducing fossil fuel dependence in food systems world-wide. Evidence suggests that phasing out synthetic fertilisers globally would only be possible alongside a shift towards more diverse, lower-meat diets, especially in high-consumption regions. At the same time, eating more local, seasonal and minimally processed foods can significantly cut fossil fuel use, greenhouse gas emissions and packaging, while improving health and nutrition, supporting more diversified agroecological farming and strengthening local food markets.

Mainstreaming agroecology and complementary solutions for food systems resilience

A shift toward more agroecological food systems– capable of withstanding geopolitical conflict, economic instability and the cascading effects of the emerging global polycrisis– demands decisive action. Such action requires strong political commitment and sustained multilateral cooperation across scales and sectors.

In the short term, it is crucial to leverage international systems to stabilise essential flows together with prioritising the allocation of emergency funds to provide financial support for farmers to procure or purchase organic alternatives, particularly in the most affected regions.

In the medium term, it is necessary to reduce structural barriers to farmers’ adoption of agroecology regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions, such as power asymmetries, poverty, land tenure insecurity and lack of supportive institutions and incentives. To support the transition towards more resilient food systems, it is imperative to reform agricultural subsidies so that they promote agroecology, regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions and access to renewable energy sources, instead of financing fossil fuel-intensive agriculture. At the same time, the knowledge-intensive nature of agroecology, regenerative agriculture, nature positive and other complementary solutions and the structural changes needed for its full-scale implementation mean that this process must be rooted in strong social coalitions, strengthened local governance and institutions, and effective knowledge cocreation networks. This transformation must be accompanied by the appropriate institutionalisation of agroecological practices at different scales and sectors and coherent, crosscutting national and international policy frameworks.

In the long term, it is essential to continue deepening the ongoing transformation of food production, distribution and consumption paradigms, shifting from extractivist, unsustainable and undemocratic models toward more just, regenerative and collaborative systems firmly grounded in agroecological ecological and social principles. Ultimately, the foundations of a more sustainable and resilient food system must rest on the conviction that war should never be an option.

Lulseged Tamene is Director of the CGIAR Multifunctional Landscapes (MFL) Science Program, based in Nairobi, Kenya. Lulseged leads the MFL Science Program. 

Jonathan Mockshell is Senior Scientist at the Alliance of Bioversity International & the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), and is based in Cali, Colombia. Jonathan leads research on agrifood food systems, agroecology and policy. 

Francisco Hidalgo is Research Specialist at the Alliance Bioversity & CIAT, and is also based in Cali, Colombia. Francisco contributes to research on agrifood food systems, ecology, digital tools and policy. 

Ryan Nehring is Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), based in Washington DC, USA. Ryan works on the political economy of natural resources and agrarian change.

Wei Zhang is Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Area of Work Lead for the CGIAR Multifunctional Landscapes Science Program.

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