Agrifood systems are a priority for climate change adaptation

Almost all countries identify agrifood systems as a priority for climate change adaptation (94 per cent) and mitigation (91 per cent) in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), finds a new analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), published in November 2024. NDCs are national climate action plans and the primary tool for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals. Countries are preparing to submit their third round of NDCs in 2025.

The study reveals that food insecurity and biodiversity loss are the most frequently reported climate-related risks, featuring in 88 per cent of NDCs. Around two-thirds of all countries report climate-related impacts and risks for crop-based systems in their NDCs, while about half do so for livestock, forest, and ocean and coastal-based fisheries and aquaculture systems. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and low-income countries (LICs) report climate-related risks at a higher rate than the global average, especially risks to agrifood systems and food security, livelihoods, poverty and inequality.

Significant mitigation gaps in agrifood systems

The analysis also shows that inequalities within agrifood systems remain a significant barrier in NDCs. Addressing poverty and inequality is increasingly recognised as essential for adaptation and fair transitions, but only a fraction of NDCs target the specific vulnerabilities, risks and capacities of different segments of the agrifood population. Without greater attention to these socioeconomic gaps, agrifood systems risk leaving the most marginalised groups even more exposed to the impacts of climate change.

Similarly, mitigation gaps in agrifood systems are significant. While agriculture and food systems are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, current NDCs address only around 40 per cent of these emissions. This leaves the potential for doubling ambition in future NDCs and action. Livestock emissions are particularly neglected, with 66 per cent unaddressed, and pre- and postproduction emissions fare even worse, with an 82 per cent gap. Without closing these gaps, achieving global temperature targets will be virtually unachievable. Even if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated, unaddressed agrifood emissions would make it almost impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C, with even 2°C a daunting challenge.

Adaptation planning efforts also fall short. While agrifood adaptation measures in NDCs are relatively comprehensive, their effectiveness is uncertain due to lack of clarity regarding feasibility and robustness. Without more coordinated and effective planning and investment, adaptation efforts will struggle to keep pace with escalating climate risks.

Immense financing gap

The study shows that there is also an immense financial cost associated with decades of relative climate inaction in agrifood systems. Agriculture bears the brunt of climate-related disasters.

The scale of the climate finance gap further highlights the challenges ahead. Transforming agrifood systems to withstand climate pressures would require a massive 40-fold increase in agrifood system investments per year until 2030, according to a study cited by the Global Analysis.

While countries recognise the need to scale up funding for agrifood systems, current estimates in NDCs still cover only one-sixth of the required finance, meaning a critical opportunity to mobilise resources for developing countries and implement actionable investment plans could be missed. The good news is that with a deadline of early 2025 to submit updated NDCs, countries still have a small window to increase their ambitions in this regard.

(FAO/ile)

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